The problem of estimation of entropy functionals of probability densities has received much attention in the information theory, machine learning and statistics communities. Kernel density plug-in estimators are simple, easy to implement and widely used for estimation of entropy.

In causal inference, a variety of causal effect estimands have been studied, including the sample, uncensored, target, conditional, optimal subpopulation, and optimal weighted average treatment effects. Ad-hoc methods have been developed for each estimand based on inverse probability weighting (IPW) and on outcome regression modeling, but these may be sensitive to model misspecification, practical violations of positivity, or both. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we formulate the generalized average treatment effect (GATE) to unify these causal estimands as well as their IPW estimates. Second, we develop a method based on Kernel Optimal Matching (KOM) to optimally estimate GATE and to find the GATE most easily estimable by KOM, which we term the Kernel Optimal Weighted Average Treatment Effect. KOM provides uniform control on the conditional mean squared error of a weighted estimator over a class of models while simultaneously controlling for precision. We study its theoretical properties and evaluate its comparative performance in a simulation study. We illustrate the use of KOM for GATE estimation in two case studies: comparing spine surgical interventions and studying the effect of peer support on people living with HIV.

Evaluating novel contextual bandit policies using logged data is crucial in applications where exploration is costly, such as medicine. But it usually relies on the assumption of no unobserved confounders, which is bound to fail in practice. We study the question of policy evaluation when we instead have proxies for the latent confounders and develop an importance weighting method that avoids fitting a latent outcome regression model. We show that unlike the unconfounded case no single set of weights can give unbiased evaluation for all outcome models, yet we propose a new algorithm that can still provably guarantee consistency by instead minimizing an adversarial balance objective. We further develop tractable algorithms for optimizing this objective and demonstrate empirically the power of our method when confounders are latent.

Assessing the fairness of a decision making system with respect to a protected class, such as gender or race, is challenging when class membership labels are unavailable. Probabilistic models for predicting the protected class based on observable proxies, such as surname and geolocation for race, are sometimes used to impute these missing labels for compliance assessments. Empirically, these methods are observed to exaggerate disparities, but the reason why is unknown. In this paper, we decompose the biases in estimating outcome disparity via threshold-based imputation into multiple interpretable bias sources, allowing us to explain when over- or underestimation occurs. We also propose an alternative weighted estimator that uses soft classification, and show that its bias arises simply from the conditional covariance of the outcome with the true class membership. Finally, we illustrate our results with numerical simulations and a public dataset of mortgage applications, using geolocation as a proxy for race. We confirm that the bias of threshold-based imputation is generally upward, but its magnitude varies strongly with the threshold chosen. Our new weighted estimator tends to have a negative bias that is much simpler to analyze and reason about.

The problem of estimation of entropy functionals of probability densities has received much attention in the information theory, machine learning and statistics communities. Kernel density plug-in estimators are simple, easy to implement and widely used for estimation of entropy. However, kernel plug-in estimators suffer from the curse of dimensionality, wherein the MSE rate of convergence is glacially slow - of order $O(T^{-{\gamma}/{d}})$, where $T$ is the number of samples, and $\gamma>0$ is a rate parameter. In this paper, it is shown that for sufficiently smooth densities, an ensemble of kernel plug-in estimators can be combined via a weighted convex combination, such that the resulting weighted estimator has a superior parametric MSE rate of convergence of order $O(T^{-1})$. Furthermore, it is shown that these optimal weights can be determined by solving a convex optimization problem which does not require training data or knowledge of the underlying density, and therefore can be performed offline. This novel result is remarkable in that, while each of the individual kernel plug-in estimators belonging to the ensemble suffer from the curse of dimensionality, by appropriate ensemble averaging we can achieve parametric convergence rates.